Reliability-based ME-MCDA for Sustainable Global Energy Supply Technology Assessment: Net energy Balance and Density Considerations  

Oleh:

Ongkowijoyo, Citra Satria

Jenis: Article from Proceeding
Dalam koleksi: Proceeding The 1st International Conference on Sustainable Civil Engineering Structures and Construction Materials (SCESCM) di Yogyakarta, September 11 – 13, 2012, page 307-315.
Topik: Energy supply; Infrastructure; Stochastic processes; Group decision making; Compromise method.
Fulltext: 42.pdf (503.2KB)

Isi artikel

The transition to a renewable energy system will be challenging because of the modest energy density of the alternative fuels, the low conversion efficiency and power density of renewable energy extraction, and problems of intermittency. Indeed, there is still considerable variance in the estimates of the basic performance metrics of renewable technologies. Thus, the promises of various substitute technologies in the transition toward increased decarbonisation must be subjected to a careful reality check. Technology with significant underlying cumulative energy demand and concomitant payback periods that are long relative to their effective lifetime are constrained in terms of their capacity to achieve any reasonable rates of self-sustained growth. This paper develops a decision aid method for determining the most optimum energy supply infrastructure under the energy plowback constraint. The decision aiding processes involving multiple stakeholders and evaluation criteria. The uncertainty of criteria weights set by expert judgment can be transformed in random ways based on the probabilistic virtual-scale method within a prioritization matrix. The ranking is performed by extended compromises ranking systems considering stochastic criteria weight based on individual preference. Application of the decision aiding model in actual energy supply infrastructure case confirms that the method provides a robust and effective tool for facilitating decision making under uncertainty.

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