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One-track Bind; Converging Economies
Article from Bulletin/Magazine
The Economist (http://search.proquest.com/) vol. 400 no. 8752 (Sep. 2011)
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Lihat Detail Induk
China invests some 50% of its GDP, more than double the average in rich countries. The big capital projects of state-owned enterprises, such as railways, receive funding on easy terms, but interest rates paid on bank deposits are capped. A system that favours certain borrowers over ordinary savers or bank shareholders is bound to back ill-judged projects and run up bad debts, argue the bears. China's recent growth has been so impressive that it seems churlish to question whether it can continue. Yet the country will find it more difficult to grow quickly as it becomes richer, as will India and Brazil. All three big emerging markets need to find ways to avoid the inflation that has bedevilled developing countries in the past. China's reliance on exports and on investment that supports export industries has reached its limits. The problems of middle-aged development will soon afflict China and others, according to research by Barry Eichengreen of the University of California, Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank and Kwanho Shin of Korea University. The research shows that economies such as China's, with an undervalued currency and a low rate of consumer spending, are more likely to suffer a growth slowdown.
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