Detail Forecast Accuracy : Are Some Business Economists Consistently Better than Others ?   Oleh:  Dong, W. Cho Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine Dalam koleksi: BUSINESS ECONOMICS vol. 31 no. 4 (1996), page 45-50. Topik: BUSINESS; forecast accuracy; business economists Ketersediaan Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: BB20.3 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada     Lihat Detail Induk Isi artikel This paper evaluates the forecast performance of a group of core participants of the semiannual survey of economic predictions conducted by the wall street journal. A few forecaster have outperformed benchmark forecasts and the consensus over an extended period. A very small number of forecasters appear to have made extreme forecasts to achieve high rankings but have accumulated large average forecast errors. The differences in forecast accuracy among the participants are large enough to suggest that forecast users can improve their forecasts by combining the predicitions of a few top performers rather than relying on a consensus forecast. Opini Anda Klik untuk menuliskan opini Anda tentang koleksi ini! Kembali

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