Predicting Turning Points in Economic Activity with Indexes of Economic Indicators : Improved Reliability Using A Logistic Model  

Oleh:

Henderson, James W. ; Seaman, Samuel L.

Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi: BUSINESS ECONOMICS vol. 29 no. 1 (1994), page 40-45.
Topik: ECONOMIC; economic activites; indexes; economic indicators; reliability; logistic model

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: BB20.2 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

Economists, policy makers, entrepreneurs, and many others interested in charting business activity have long desired a quick and simple way of predicting peaks and troughs in the business cycle. This study uses monthly data on the composite series of economic indicators to predict turning points in economic activity. Using a logistic regression model, we have been able to predict recession with an average lead time of one month. More importantly, we have been able to reduce the error rate (the percentage of false signals) to less than I percent, representing a significant improvement over previous attempts by other researchers.

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