Can China Brave A U.S. Downturn?  

Oleh:

Roche, David

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Far Eastern Economic Review vol. 170 no. 01 (2007), page 39-41.
Topik: Exports; Economic impact; Demand; Economic conditions; Foreign investment

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: FF21.19 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Work out how much the US buys from China, cut the growth of US's imports from China in half and see what is the hit to China's GDP. According to China's economic statistics, if Chinese exports were to weaken, there is no way domestic demand could make up the difference. Consumption in China is on a weakening trend as a proportion of GDP. Exports and investment are the real drivers of the economy. China seems capable of withstanding the impact of even a quite dramatic slowdown, in both exports to the US and in the foreign direct investment (FDI) that it receives from the US. China's vulnerability to such shocks is probably overstated by official statistics that may exaggerate investment but underreport the fast-growing consumer sector. A US downturn that impacted China would also elicit a fiscal and monetary policy response, which could offset between half and two-thirds of the growth loss from weakening exports and inward FDI.

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