Structural Changes in A Reforming World Economy : Implications for Indonesia  

Oleh:

Pangestu, Mari ; Anderson, Kym

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional
Dalam koleksi: BIES: Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies vol. 34 no. 3 (1998), page 85-114.
Topik: economy; structural changes; world economu; indonesia

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: BB59.2 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

Lihat Detail Induk

Isi artikel

How will rapid East Asian industrialisation and international trade policy reforms affect Indonesia's economy ? Taking an economy - wide perspective and drawing on projections to 2005, based on a global applied general equilibrium model (GTAP), we show the impact of Uruguay Round implementation, and explore other international influences on Indonesia's and neighbouring economies. Trade reforms likely to accompany China's (and Taiwan's) membership of the WTO are projected to boost the competitiveness of Indonesia's primary sectors at the expense of light manufacturing and the overall economy, while failure by OECD countries to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open their textile and clothing markets would reduce industrialisation in the region, slowing growth in its net food imports. The benefits to Indonesia of APEC liberalisations are also reported. All projections were completed in 1997 before the enormity of the financial crisis became clear ; follow- o n research should quantify the growth slowdown's impact on these results.

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