The Mixed Blessings of Self-Knowledge in Behavioral Prediction : Enhanced Discrimination but Exacerbated Bias  

Oleh:

Epley, Nicholas ; Dunning, David

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin (http://journals.sagepub.com/home/pspc) vol. 32 no. 05 (2006), page 641-655.
Topik: CALIBRATION; accuracy; bias; prediction; calibration; discrimination
Fulltext: 641.pdf (211.45KB)

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: PP45.26 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Four experiments demonstrate that self - knowledge provides a mixed blessing in behavioural prediction, depending on how accuracy is measured. Compared with predictions of others, selfknowledge tends to decrease overall accuracy by increasing bias (the mean difference between predicted behaviour and reality) but tends to increase overall accuracy by also enhancing discrimination (the correlation between predicted behaviour and reality). Overall, participants’ self - predictions overestimated the likelihood that they would engage in desirable behaviors (bias), whereas peer predictions were relatively unbiased. However, self predictions also were more strongly correlated with individual differences in actual behaviour (discrimination) than were peer predictions. Discussion addresses the costs and benefits of self knowledge in behavioural prediction and the broader implications of measuring judgemental accuracy of judgement in terms of bias versus discrimination.

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