Prediction in Macrosociology: The Case of the Soviet Collapse  

Oleh:

Collins, Randall

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: AJS: American Journal of Sociology vol. 100 no. 06 (May 1995), page 1552-1593.
Topik: Macrohistorical predictions; the Soviet Collapse; Macrosociology

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan PKPM Nomor Panggil: A13 Non-tandon: 6 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

Macrohistorical predictions are possible, provided both a theory and empirical information are available. This article discusses sociological prediction, using geopolitical theory's successful prediction of the breakup of the Soviet Union as an example. Other predictions and explanations of the Soviet breakup generally lack theoretical validity. The precision of macropolitical predictions is limited to a range of decades, but state breakdown and revolution occur in a much narrower time period. The transfer of power happens in a mass mobilization lasting a few days, thus creating the illusion that spontaneous popular will causes macropolitical change and masking the structural shifts that make the change possible.

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