Detail Focalist Bias in Probability Judgments: How does that Affect Consumers’ Decisions? (abstract only)   Oleh:  Wu, Shali ; Emery, Clifton R. ; Lei, Xi Jenis: Article from Proceeding Dalam koleksi: The International Symposium on Social Sciences (TISSS) and Hong Kong International Conference on Education, Psychology and Society (HKICEPS) at Hongkong, December 2013, page 258. Topik: judgement; consumer Fulltext: Hong Kong-Conference 35.pdf (285.84KB) Isi artikel Research has generally reported that Asians are more overconfident than Americans (Yates, Lee and Bush, 1997). However, most of these studies of over-confidence involve tests of general knowledge and do not compare Americans with mainland Chinese. This paper uses literature from cross-cultural psychology to make an alternate set of predictions about Americans and Chinese when over-confidence is examined in the context of base-rate neglect. Converging results were derived from three studies: Study 1 replicated the findings of Griffin and Tversky (1992) for Americans, but not for Chinese. The manipulation of baserate information influenced American probability judgments, but not Chinese probability judgments. Chinese do not appear to suffer from base-rate neglect to the same extent as Americans. This gives evidence for the first time that Chinese, in pure Bayesian updating judgments, are less prone to base rate neglect. Study 2 showed that manipulating base-rates to draw them into focal attention improved American performance of the task vis a vis objective (Bayesian) posterior probabilities. The manipulation did not improve Chinese performance however. Inferential statistics show that this improvement in American performance occurred because Americans were affected by the experimental manipulation drawing base-rates into focal attention. American performance improvements were primarily driven by better (more sufficient) consideration of the weight information (base rates). Chinese use of information was not substantially changed by the experimental manipulation drawing base-rates to focal attention. Study 3 used E-Prime to examine consumers’ online product purchase decisions: participants were asked to make preferential ratings over the products with different combinations of product reviews and number of reviewers. Attention on the number of reviewers overweiging that on the reviews were found among Chinese participants. Marketing and Managerial implications are discussed. Opini Anda Klik untuk menuliskan opini Anda tentang koleksi ini! Kembali

Copyright © 2006, 2007 Unika Atma Jaya, all rights reserved