Pola Fluktuasi Inflasi di Indonesia Berdasarkan Data Inflasi Bulanan Tahun 1999-2002  

Oleh:

Saadah, Siti ; Yuliana, Oktaviani S. Mercy

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional - tidak terakreditasi DIKTI - atma jaya
Dalam koleksi: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis vol. 3 no. 2 (Aug. 2003), page 122-132.
Topik: Seasonal Variation; Inflation; Trend
Fulltext: Siti Saadah_Mercy Yuliana.pdf (654.5KB)

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: JJ100.3 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

The price level is one of the important factors that can undergo changes at any time, which will influence economic agents in the process of economic decision making. Since the price level is subject to change, information on price levels, both for the present as well as for the future, becomes extremely important. This research has the purpose of establishing the inflation fluctuation patterns in Indonesia, using monthly inflation data for the period 1999-2002. By observing the inflation data fluctuation pattern for the period above, it has been determined that there are components of trend and seasonal variations. The empiric model used to predict the fluctuation paterns above can be specified as a regression model with explanatory variables, one of them being the dummy variable representing the seasonal attributes. After passing through the diagnostic testing stage, the inferential analysis carried out on the research model showed that both the trend and the seasonal component have significant influence on the rate of inflation.The research also showed that Indonesian monthly inflation tends to be high in the months of January, February, July, November, and December.

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