Scenario Analysis on Technological Substitution between MILC and DSLR  

Oleh:

Widyanto, Faisal A. ; Wiratmadja, Iwan I.

Jenis: Article from Proceeding
Dalam koleksi: The 14th Asia Pacific Industrial Engineering and Management Systems Conference (APIEMS), 3-6 December 2013 Cebu, Philippines, page 1-9.
Topik: Technological Forecasting; Technological Substitution; Scenario Analysis; Delphi Method; Digital Camera
Fulltext: 1139.pdf (521.38KB)

Isi artikel

The tight competition between industries has caused technology to evolve even faster. This makes the understanding of the underlying dynamics in the emergence of new technology become even more important. The phenomenon where emerging technology replaces the currently dominant technology is called technological substitution. The classical quantitative method of technological substitution is usually too simplified to explain the real condition of the technological growth in the future. Therefore, some researches combine the technological substitution model with scenario analysis to yield a better result of the forecast. In general, the construction of scenario analysis is based on some key decision factor and driving force. However, in some research, the basis of the key decision factor was often unclear and did not have a rigid structure. Therefore, in this research, a combination of technological evolution framework, the emergence industries framework, and the diffusion of innovation framework is used as the basic decision factor of the scenario. These theoretical frameworks can then be used as the foundation to do further analysis of other factors influencing the technological substitution (e.g. number of innovations, rate of competitiveness, and consumer preference). To make a better forecast, this research uses the Delphi method to consider expert opinion for the scenario analysis. In digital camera industry, the MILC (MILC Interchangeable Lens Camera) technology indicates the character of disruptive emergence technology, whereas the DSLR (Digital Single Lens Reflect) camera indicates the dominant technology. This study uses the proposed method to forecast whether the MILC will substitute DSLR technology in the global market for the next 10 years.

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