An analysis of the fluctuation in electronic component prices using a price percolation model  

Oleh:

Kanai, Yasuhir ; Abe, Keiji ; Seki, Yoichi

Jenis: Article from Proceeding
Dalam koleksi: The 14th Asia Pacific Industrial Engineering and Management Systems Conference (APIEMS), 3-6 December 2013 Cebu, Philippines, page 1-9.
Topik: Simulation; market formation process; site percolation model; price fluctuation scenario; semiconductor industry
Fulltext: 1046.pdf (659.9KB)

Isi artikel

In this paper, we propose a model to estimate the frequency distribution of the purchasing price of electronic components. We use a two-dimensional site percolation model and represent the purchasing prices as sizes of clusters formulated by the percolation. Our model has two parameters—one is L, the size of a two-dimensional square lattice; this parameter represents the size of the total amount of needs. The other is P, the probability that each site is occupied—that is, the probability of demand actualization; we call this P the probability of a sales contract. We verified the model using actual data from an electronic components market. In order to adjust the model for the real market, we investigated two economic indexes that influence the changes in purchasing prices. The first is gross national income (GNI) per capita; its increase leads to an increase in L. The second index is the sales amount of the product category. The proposed model enables us to examine the market formation process of a product category and the price fluctuation scenario of market expansion or business fluctuations. The results obtained in this study suggest that our model explains the price fluctuation mechanism by analyzing the changes in the market from a macro perspective.

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