The Impact of Capital Reversal and the Threshold of Current Account Deficit on Rupiah  

Oleh:

Nugroho, M. Noor ; Ibrahim ; Winarno, Tri ; Permata, Meily Ika

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional - terakreditasi DIKTI
Dalam koleksi: Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking (ex: Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan) vol. 16 no. 3 (Jan. 2014), page 205-230.
Topik: Capital flows; exchange rate; current account deficit; threshold.
Fulltext: The Impact of Capital Reveral and The Threshold of Current Account Deficit on Rupiah.pdf (456.8KB)

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: BB62 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months.

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