Konsumsi, Harga dan Bentuk Pasar BBM di Indonesia  

Oleh:

Kurtubi

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional
Dalam koleksi: Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia vol. XLVI no. 3 (1998), page 369-390.
Topik: Konsumsi BBM; Harga BBM; Bentuk Pasar BBM

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: EE10 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

Elasticities of petroleum based fuels (BBM) demand in Indonesia are estimeted by applying cointegration approach where the fluctuation of demand is explained by explanatory variables that are derived from the Marshallian demand theory. The result of the Johansen (1995) cointegrating test shows that the demand for BBM cointegrates with its "explanatory variables" and, therefore, they are in the long-run equilibrium. From "proved cointegrating model" I get the long-run income and price elasticities of demand for BBM to be elstic (+1.351) and inelastic (-0.594) respectively. From error correction model, which is derived from cointegrating model, their short-run counterparts are +0.723 and -0.116 respectively. Compared to other relevant studies using the same approach, my results are in line with the cases of Kuwait (Almutari and Eltony, 1996) and Denmark (Bentzen and Engsted, 1993). The empirical results indicate thet the current crisis tends to decrease the demand for BBM relatively smaller in the short-run compared to that of in the long-run. These elasticities can help both the oil-related government agencies in dealing with the growth of BBM consumption and the BBM market players in making their revenue planning. Regarding the termination of Pertamina's monopoly in the BBM market, I suggest to conduct an intensive study whether or not Pertamina as a non-profit maximizing monopolist has reached "batural-monopoly" or "quasi-natural monopoly" status. If Pertamina has reached this status, a restructuring market policy by allowing new playes (in this case, by definition, they have higher average total cost) could decrease economic welfare of the society. Otherwise, a competitivemarket will be the best for everybody.

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