Generating Hourly Rainfall Model using Bayesian Time Series Model (A Case Study at Sentral Station, Bondowoso)  

Oleh:

Hidayah, Entin ; Iriawan, Nur ; Anwar, Nadjadji ; Edijatno

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional - terakreditasi DIKTI
Dalam koleksi: IPTEK: The Journal for Technology and Science vol. 22 no. 1 (Feb. 2011), page 50-56.
Topik: hujan temporal; setiap jam; time series Bayesian; temporal rainfall; hourly; Bayesian time series
Fulltext: 56-95-1-SM.pdf (961.74KB)

Isi artikel

Disaggregation of hourly rainfall data is very important to fulfil the input of continual rainfall-runoff model, when the availability of automatic rainfall records are limited. Continual rainfall-runoff modeling requires rainfall data in form of series of hourly. Such specification can be obtained by temporal disaggregation in single site. The paper attempts to generate single-site rainfall model based upon time series (AR1) model by adjusting and establishing dummy procedure. Estimated with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) the objective variable is hourly rainfall depth. Performance of model has been evaluated by comparison of history data and model prediction. The result shows that the model has a good performance for dry interval periods. The performance of the model good represented by smaller number of MAE by 0.21 respectively.

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