Living in the Futures  

Oleh:

Wilkinson, Angela ; Kupers, Roland

Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Harvard Business Review bisa di lihat di link (http://web.b.ebscohost.com/ehost/command/detail?sid=f227f0b4-7315-44a4-a7f7-a7cd8cbad80b%40sessionmgr114&vid=12&hid=105&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=HBR) vol. 91 no. 5 (May 2013), page 118-127.
Topik: Corporate Strategy; Corporate Change; Corporate Practices

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: HH10.46 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

Credit for originating scenario planning often goes to the American game theorist and futurist Herman Kahn. However, a form of the practice emerged simultaneously in France in the work of Gaston Berger, Bertrand de Jouvenel, and others. The American approach came to emphasize probability, with degrees of likelihood assigned to various outcomes, while the French approach focused more on what should happen. Newland and Wack, aware of both, steered clear of probabilistic forecasts and normative statements and instead insisted that scenarios should first and foremost be plausible. One U.S. government report from a decade ago estimated that 85% of the scenario studies surveyed by the report’s authors were based on or derived from the Royal Dutch Shell process, suggesting that Shell’s experience contains lessons relevant for anyone—investors, corporations, governments, nongovernmental organizations, and others—trying to engage with the future.

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