System Dynamics Using Stella A Case Study of Population Dynamics in City of Surabaya  

Oleh:

Sunaryo, Kuntoro ; Suyono, Haryono

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional
Dalam koleksi: The Indonesian Journal of Public Health vol. 04 no. 03 (Mar. 2008), page 89-95.
Topik: stella; population dynamics

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan FK Nomor Panggil: I10.K Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

The projection of millennium development goals (MDGs) indicators is important to evaluate the achievement of those goals. Evaluation can be done yearly until 2015 so that any correction of the programs that provide the achievement of MDGs can be done properly. City of Surabaya by mean of IIHD and AUlCK has accomplished such projection. Secondary data analysis by mean of Stella Software was used to make the projection of population size, three of eight indicators of MDGs such as proportion of people living on less than US$ 1 per day, proportion of students reaching grade 5, and child mortality up to 2015. The results showed that first, based on medium, high and low range projection, by 2015 population size will be respectively 2, 757,620; 2,947,249, and 2,844,467. Second, based on medium, high and low range projection, by 2015 the proportion of people who live on less than US$1 per day will be respectively 68.26%, 74.25% and 65.41%. Third, based on medium, high and low range projection, by 205 the proportion of students who start grade 1 and reach grade 5 will be respectively 24%, 36% and 18%. Fourth .. based on medium, high and low range projection, by 2015 infant mortality rate will be respectively 31.ll, 30.42, and 31.48 per 1,000 live births. While under five child death will be respectively 37.16, 36.33, and 37.60. It is recommended to the government of City of Surabaya in achieving three of eight MDGs mentioned above to consider to the results of projections of proportion of people living on less than US1 per day, proportion of students reaching grade 5, infant and under five child mortality rate by selecting the scenario.

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