Managing and Reducing Uncertainty in an Emerging Influenza Pandemic  

Oleh:

Lipsitch, Marc ; Riley, Steven ; Cauchemez, Simon ; Ghani, Azra C. ; Ferguson, Neil M.

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: The New England Journal of Medicine (keterangan: ada di Proquest) vol. 361 no. 02 (Jul. 2009), page 112-115.
Topik: Influenza

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan FK Nomor Panggil: N08.K.2009.04 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

The early phases of an epidemic present decision makers with predictable challenges1 that have been evident as the current novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread. The scale of the problem is uncertain when a disease first appears but may increase rapidly. Early action is required, but decisions about action must be made when the threat is only modest — and consequently, they involve a trade-off between the comparatively small, but nearly certain, harm that an intervention may cause (such as rare adverse events from large-scale vaccination or economic and social costs from school dismissals) and the uncertain probability of much greater harm from a widespread outbreak. This combination of urgency, uncertainty, and the costs of interventions makes the effort to control infectious diseases especially difficult.

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