Do Family Caps on Welfare Affect Births Among Welfare Recipients? Reconciling Efficacy and Effectiveness Estimates of Impact through a Blended Design Strategy  

Oleh:

Jagannathan, Radha ; Camasso, Michael J. ; Killingsworth, Mark R.

Jenis: Article from Journal - e-Journal
Dalam koleksi: American Journal of Evaluation vol. 25 no. 3 (Sep. 2004), page 295–319.
Topik: blended experimental; quasi-experimental research; social policies; public assistance; Heraclitus effect
Fulltext: 295.pdf (193.04KB)

Isi artikel

This paper proposes a blended experimental and quasi-experimental research strategy which we believe will help improve the external validity of evaluations of welfare reform and other social policies.We draw upon data from New Jersey’s imposition of a family cap, where welfare benefits instead of increasing remained the same for women who conceive and bear a child while on public assistance. We directly compare estimates of the policy’s effectiveness on the state’s welfare population using (a) a point-in-time sample randomly assigned to experimental and control group conditions; (b) an initial cohort sample similarly assigned; and (c) a before and after policy implementation of the entire welfare caseload. We find that these estimates can differ dramatically, reflecting sensitivity to a time-induced heterogeneity we have labeled the Heraclitus effect. We discuss how multiple estimates of effectiveness can be used to bound expectations of a welfare reform policy impact when population dynamics data are available.

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