Fiscal Forecasting: The Track Record Of The IMF, OECD And EC  

Oleh:

Artis, Michael ; Marcellino, Massimiliano

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: The Econometrics Journal vol. 4 no. 1 (2001), page 20-36.
Topik: Fiscal forecasting; Forecast comparison; Loss function.
Fulltext: 20.pdf (266.44KB)

Isi artikel

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast poolin

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