| Future health manpower needs will be determined by future trends in diseases, technological advances, and the future organization of health services. Prediction is based on a quantitative analysis of data on present disease patterns and achievement rates. Factors to be taken into consideration include: demographic data; disease statistics by demographic characteristics; and data on the work load capacity of physicians and other health personnel. Once the components entering into the calculation are established, a mathematical formula indicates the projected future manpower needs. The paper discusses in some detail what type of statistics should be included in data gathering, and includes some general forecasts on disease trends. Five references are listed. |