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Loans versus bonds as emerging market credit
Bibliografi
Author:
Miles, William Robert
;
Baer, Werner
(Advisor)
Topik:
ECONOMICS
;
GENERAL|ECONOMICS
;
FINANCE|BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
;
BANKING
Bahasa:
(EN )
ISBN:
0-599-20963-1
Penerbit:
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN
Tahun Terbit:
1999
Jenis:
Theses - Dissertation
Fulltext:
9921714.pdf
(0.0B;
2 download
)
Abstract
The instrument of most financial capital flows to developing countries during the 1970s was largely bank loans. The 1990s witnessed renewed flows to emerging markets, mostly portfolio investment. While welcomed, concerns have been expressed that security inflows may increase the likelihood of crises. Thus critics point to the Mexican devaluation of 1994 and the current troubles in other nations as evidence that completely open capital accounts can be a source of distress when bonds and equities are the conduits of investment. There is at the same time a large body of literature that posits banks as more patient investors than bondholders, and, most crucially, more willing to work with borrowers facing liquidity problems. For LDCs, Folkerts-Landau (1985) points out that loans are frequently rescheduled, whereas bonds are not. No empirical papers have yet examined loans and bonds in the 1990s era of security inflows. This project fills that gap. Accordingly, three essays probe the current differences between loans and bonds for emerging markets. The first estimates the spreads on each as functions of risk variables. As expected, bonds are more sensitive to risk factors than banks. It is concluded that bonds are priced more “accurately” than loans. Another strand of the literature on modern capital mobility is the relative importance of country-specific versus global factors in determining flows. Several authors have investigated whether certain flows have resulted from good developments in the capital-importing countries or from exogenous variables like interest rates in center countries. All authors have found that exogenous determinants play a substantial role. None have examined loan or bond determinants. Results indicate that loans are determined more by country-specific factors than are bonds. Lastly, a literature has developed on whether the new portfolio flows are “hot money”, in that they may exhibit high volatility relative to other forms of capital such as direct investment. Some authors question whether portfolio flows are hot money. None look at more specific categories, however. Accordingly, various estimations and tests are performed on loans and bonds to determine which series exhibits more volatility. Here the results clearly show that bonds are the more volatile inflow.
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