China And The Subprime Scorpion  

Oleh:

Rosen, Daniel H.

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Far Eastern Economic Review vol. 170 no. 07 (Sep. 2007), page 18-22.
Topik: Subprime lending; Economic impact; Monetary policy; Economic crisis

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: FF21 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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In the late 1990s, China managed to avoid the gravest consequences of the Asian financial crisis due to its idiosyncratic policy positions and economic structure. A decade later, with a new sort of financial crisis unfolding in the US subprime mortgage market, many believe the factors that insulated China in the past still buffer it today. But the potential impact on China of global risk repricing is more complex than the short-term direct exposure suggests. There are myriad assumptions about risk in China that are due for reappraisal and which will have a real effect on the country in a number of ways: 1. public equities, 2. hot money, 3. domestic credit, 4. exports, and 5. exchange rates. This contrarian perspective on the relationship of China to the subprime crisis is fully compatible with the consensus view that macroeconomic performance in China is not at risk. But it differs in the microeconomic outlook: Companies, equities and the industry mix are much more vulnerable than many think.

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