Model Prediksi Anomali OLR dan Curah Hujan di Atas Wilayah Tropik Dari Anomali Suhu Permukaan Laut Pasifik Tropik Selama ENSO  

Oleh:

Gunawan, Hidayat ; Kustiyo ; Arief, Hamzah ; Harini, Sri ; Adiningsih, Erna Sri

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional
Dalam koleksi: Majalah Sains dan Teknologi Dirgantara (Fulltext) vol. 1 no. 1 (Jan. 1999), page 31-36.
Topik: Anomali OLR; Anomali Suhu Permukaan

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: MM32.1 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

Usually occurrence of ENSO (El Nino Southern Osilation) impact the dryness in Indonesia, therefore prediction for the ENSO and it’s impact to climate over Indonesia was expected could decrease the worst social economic effects. The first principal component of EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) model extract the El NINO phenomena. CCA (Cross Correlation Analysis) model correlate pacific tropic sea surface temperature anomaly and OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) anomaly in tropic region from 0 to 5 months delay. The goals of this research were the model for prediction OLR anomaly in tropic region from pacific tropic sea surface temperature anomaly, and the model of relationship between OLR and rain fall over Indonesia. Prediction model was based on 23 years data from 1974 to 1996, that data were OLR tropic (30° N — 30° S, 60° E 90° W) as predictant, and Pacific tropic sea surface temperature (30° N — 30° S, 150° E — 90° W) as predictor. Relationship model between OLR and rainfall over Indonesia was based on data from 23 rainfall observation stations for 22 years (1974 — 1995). The prediction model of OLR anomaly was good enough to predict the OLR anomaly for zero month up to five months later. The relationship between OLR and rain fall over Indonesia showed that the significance levels for December to June were high, but for July to November the significance levels decreased

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