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A Comparison of Several Consensus Forecasts
Oleh:
Townsend, Henry
Jenis:
Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi:
BUSINESS ECONOMICS vol. 31 no. 1 (1996)
,
page 53-55.
Topik:
consensus
;
comparison
;
several consensus
;
forecasts
Ketersediaan
Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi)
Nomor Panggil:
BB20.3
Non-tandon:
1 (dapat dipinjam: 0)
Tandon:
tidak ada
Lihat Detail Induk
Isi artikel
Four consensus forecasts have been in existence long enough to answer the question : "Which consensus forecast is the best ?" Several familiar error statistics, such as the mean error of forecasts, over the past twelve years seem to establish a fairly clear ranking among the four. However, more powerful statistical models show that the ranking is probably a matter of chance, and no statistically significant differences exist in the accuracy of the four consensus forecasts.
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