Are Judgement Errors Reflected in Market Prices And Allocations ? Experimental Evidence Based on The Monty Hall Problem  

Oleh:

Kluger, Brian D. ; Wyatt, Steve B.

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: The Journal of Finance (EBSCO) vol. 59 no. 3 (Jun. 2004), page 969-998.
Topik: allocation problem; capital markets; efficient markets; stock prices; studies; securities trading; decision making
Fulltext: p 969.pdf (257.18KB)

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: JJ88 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

The question of whether individual judgment errors survive in market equilibrium is an issue that naturally lends itself to experimental analysis. Here, the Monty Hall problem is used to detect probability judgment errors both in a cohort of individuals and in a market setting. When all subjects in a cohort made probability judgment errors, market prices also reflected the error. However, competition among two bias - free subjects was sufficient to drive prices to error - free levels. Thus, heterogeneity in behaviour can be an important factor in asset pricing, and further, it may take few bias - free traders to make asset prices bias - free.

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