Detail Consensus Forecasts in Planning   Oleh:  Sykes, Michael R. Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine Dalam koleksi: BUSINESS ECONOMICS vol. 28 no. 1 (1993), page 39-43. Topik: PLANNING; consensus forecast; planning Ketersediaan Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: BB20.1 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada     Lihat Detail Induk Isi artikel Externally produced macro economic forecasts are frequently used as an input to the planning process, often to provide the broad framework within which more specific questions can be addressed. However, the quality of the output is partially dependent on the quality of the macro economic inputs chosen. A consensus forecast aggregates the views of a number of leading macro economic forecasters who use different approaches and attach different weights to the importance of the various factors that impact the economy. Research suggests that few, if any, individual forecasters consistently outperform the consensus across a range of variables, although some forecasters may perform well for individual series. Studies also suggest that the use of a consensus minimizes the risks of large forecast errors, which has obvious benefits for firms operating in sectors of the economy particularly sensitive to swings in overall economic activity. The consensus approach allows the user to examine the range or distribution of forecasts, and also permits comparison of individual forecasts, whether produced by external advisers or internal analysts, with the mainstream view. Opini Anda Klik untuk menuliskan opini Anda tentang koleksi ini! Kembali

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