Detail A Yield Curve Model for Predicting Turning Points in Industrial Production   Oleh:  Goodman, Douglas E. ; Brown, William S. Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine Dalam koleksi: BUSINESS ECONOMICS vol. 26 no. 3 (1991), page 55-58. Topik: production; yield curve; turning points; industrial production Ketersediaan Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: BB20.1 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada     Lihat Detail Induk Isi artikel The yield curve has long been recognized as an indicator of business - cycle turning points. An inversion of the yield curve - short interest rates rising above long interest rates - is usually a signal of pending recession. We use this idea to develop a series of one - equation models for forecasting the probability of recession with 3, 4, 6, 9 and 12 month lags. The advantage of these models is that they give a more precise method of predicting recession than simple observation of the yield curve. Though our models rely upon logistic regression analysis, the forecast equations are simple and can be used by any applied forecaster. Of course, external events unrelated to the yield curve can always affect the forecast. Opini Anda Klik untuk menuliskan opini Anda tentang koleksi ini! Kembali

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