Ruminations on Challenges to Prediction with Rational Choice Models  

Oleh:

Mesquita, Bruce Bueno de

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Rationality and Society vol. 15 no. 1 (Feb. 2003), page 136-147.
Topik: applied models; bounded rationality; common conjectures; common knowledge; game theory; multiple equilibria; prediction; preference aggregation; social choice theory; spatial models
Fulltext: 136RS151.pdf (97.83KB)

Isi artikel

The ultimate test of any social science theory lies in its ability to predict and explain real behavior. Converting formal theory into a form that can be tested against real-time predictions, however, is a dif®cult and demanding task. The growing literature on applied formal models provides an opportunity to investigate how robust predictions are to the relaxation of speci®c assumptions. Here I investigate the robustness of applied theories in the light of multiple equilibria and the chaos theorems of McKelvey and Scho®eld, alternative dimensionality assumptions, modi®cations of conditions for preference aggregation, and bounded rationality ± all with an eye toward their implications for the accuracy of predictions regarding outcomes and decision dynamics. We come to a better understanding of the challenges that remain in converting formal models into practical tools to guide the assessment and making of complex decisions.

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