Modeling Exchange Rates : Smooth Transitions, Neural Networks, and Linear Models  

Oleh:

Veiga, A. ; Pedreira, C. E. ; Medeiros, M. C.

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks vol. 12 no. 4 (2001), page 755-764.
Topik: NEURAL NETWORKS; modeling; exchange rates; smooth transition; neural networks; linear models

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: II36.5 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

The goal of this paper is to test and model nonlinearities in several monthly exchange rates time series. We apply two different nonlinear alternatives, namely : the artificial neural - network time series model estimated with Bayesian regularization; and a flexible smooth transition specification, called the neuro - coefficient smooth transition autoregression. The linearity test rejects the null hypothesis of linearity in 10 out of 14 series. We compare, using different measures, the forecasting performance of the non linear specifications with the linear autoregression and the random walk models.

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