The New Strategic Environment: Traditional Players and Emerging Regional Powers  

Oleh:

Heisbourg, Francois

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Contemporary Southeast Asia: A Journal of International and Strategic Affairs vol. 14 no. 01 (Jun. 1992), page 1-12.
Topik: China; regional powers; ASEAN

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Perpustakaan PKPM Nomor Panggil: C12 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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The strategic reordering of the world, under way since the end of the cold war, is unprecedented. In modern history, such changes have been the direct result of wars. In a world in transition, there are concerns about the emerging structure of regional and international security. But only tentative observations can be attempted in view of the highly complex character of the changes taking place. In the Asia-Pacific region, a foremost concern is the future role of the United States. Although there are worrying domestic trends, linked primarily to its economic problems, the U.S. ability to rebound should not be underestimated. On the other hand, Russia would probably take a decade or even longer to re-emerge as a significant player in the Asia-Pacific, although opportunities might arise for settling the Kurile islands dispute with Japan. China's future international role is clouded with great uncertainty. Apart from domestic problems, there are contradictory trends in China's current behavior. In Southeast Asia, ASEAN is one of the world's few effectively functioning regional organizations, even though its ambitions are more modest than the EC's goal of political and economic integration. ASEAN has to manage several challenges ahead: the "security vacuum" created by the end of U.S. Soviet rivalry and their pull-out from military bases in the region; the Spratly islands dispute; and its long-term relationship with the Indochinese states.

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