Bayesian Thinking about Macrosociology  

Oleh:

Western, Bruce

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: AJS: American Journal of Sociology vol. 107 no. 02 (Sep. 2001), page 353-378.
Topik: sweden; labor; bayesian; macrosociology
Fulltext: A13 vol. 107 no. 02 (Sep. 2001) p353.PDF (131.84KB)

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Perpustakaan PKPM Nomor Panggil: A13 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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One question dominates methodological debate,in macrosociology: In explaining large-scale social processes should we seek simple theories that apply under a range of conditions or complex theories that are tailored to specific cases? Complex explanations are justified by their explanatory power and theoretical appeal. Simple explanations are justified by their falsifiability and their capacity to sustain strong conclusions. I weigh the merits of simple and complex explanations, applying some basic ideas from Bayesian statistics. The Bayesian analysis provides support for a compromise position that is rigorously grounded in the fundamental rules of probability. These ideas are illustrated in an analysis of labor union growth in Sweden.

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