Why Does The Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation ?  

Oleh:

Estrella, Arturo

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: The Economic Journal (EBSCO) vol. 115 no. 505 (Jul. 2005), page 722-744.
Topik: inflation; yield curve; output; inflation
Fulltext: 722.pdf (221.46KB)

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: EE28.19 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

The slope of the yield curve has been shown empirically to be a significant predictor of inflation and real economic activity but there is no standard theory as to why the relationship exists. This article constructs an analytical rational expectations model to investigate the reasons for the empirical results. The model suggests that the relationships are not structural but are instead influenced by the monetary policy regime. However, the yield curve should have predictive power for output and inflation in most circumstances. Various implications of the theoretical model are tested and confirmed empirically.

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