Economic Implications of Bull and Bear Regimes in UK Stock and Bond Returns  

Oleh:

Timmermann, Allan ; Guidolin, Massimo

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: The Economic Journal (EBSCO) vol. 115 no. 500 (Jan. 2005), page 111-143.
Topik: ECONOMIC; economic; bear regimes; stock and bond returns
Fulltext: 111.pdf (515.35KB)

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: EE28.16 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

This paper presents evidence of persistent 'bull' and 'bear' regimes in UK stock and bond returns and considers their economic implications from the perspective of an investor's portfolio allocation. We find that the perceived state probability has a large effect on the optimal asset allocation, particularly at short investment horizons. If ignored, the presence of such regimes gives rise to substantial welfare costs. Parameter estimation uncertainty, while clearly important, does not overturn the conclusion that predictability in the return distribution linked to the presence of bull and bear states has a significant effect on investors' strategic asset allocation.

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