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The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival
Oleh:
Hurd, Michael D.
;
McGarry, Kathleen
Jenis:
Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi:
The Economic Journal (EBSCO) vol. 112 no. 482 (2002)
,
page 966-985.
Topik:
PROBABILITIES
;
predictive validity
;
probabilities
;
survival
Fulltext:
966.pdf
(153.83KB)
Ketersediaan
Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi)
Nomor Panggil:
EE28.8
Non-tandon:
1 (dapat dipinjam: 0)
Tandon:
tidak ada
Lihat Detail Induk
Isi artikel
Although expectations, or more precisely subjective probability distributions, play a prominent role in models of decision making under uncertainty, we have had very little data on them. Based on panel data from the Health and Retirement Study, we study the evolution of subjective survival probabilities and their ability to predict actual mortality. In panel, respondents modify their survival probabilities in response to new information such as the onset of a new disease condition. Subjective survival probabilities predict actual survival: those who survived in the panel reported survival probabilities approximately 50 % greater at baseline than those who died.
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