Are the Experts Really Experts? A Cognitive Ergonomics Investigation for Project Estimations  

Oleh:

Hartono, Budi ; Saputra, Bhery Aditya

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional - terakreditasi DIKTI - non-atma jaya
Dalam koleksi: Jurnal Teknik Industri vol. 14 no. 2 (Dec. 2012), page 115-122.
Topik: Project management; cognitive ergonomics; estimate bias; expert; group
Fulltext: 18538-21919-1-PB.pdf (397.75KB)

Isi artikel

Uniqueness is a major characteristic of any project systems. Hence it is virtually infeasible for project analysts to utilize data from past projects as references for subsequent project planning and scheduling. Most project analysts would then depend on intuition, gut feeling and experiences to develop quantitative models for project scheduling and analysis which, according to past studies, is prone towards systematic errors. This study attempts to investigate the performance of both ‘experts’ and ‘non-experts’ when utilizing their cognitive capability to estimate project durations in group/non-group settings. A cognitive ergonomics perspective -which views human capability to make judgment as rationally bounded - is utilized in this investigation. An empirical approach is used to inquiry data from ‘projects’ on which ‘experts’ and ‘non-experts’ are required to provide prior estimate on project durations. The estimates are then gauged against the actual duration. Results show that some systematic cognitive judgmental errors (biases) are observable for both experts and non-experts. The identified biases include: anchoring bias as well as accuracy bias.

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