The Law and the Profits  

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Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi: The Economist (http://search.proquest.com/) vol. 406 no. 8826 (Mar. 2013), page SS7-SS8.
Topik: Technological Change; Progress; Forecasts; Heuristic; Information Technology; Electronics

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: EE29.75 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Predicting the course of technological progress can be a risky business. Scorn the latest advances and you risk being left behind, as when Sony kept investing in flat-screen versions of cathode-ray televisions in the 1990s while Samsung piled into liquid-crystal displays (LCDs), and eventually replaced Sony as market leader. Embrace new ideas too early, though, and you may be left with egg on your face, as when General Motors spent more than $1 billion developing hydrogen fuel cells a decade ago, only to see them overtaken by lithium-ion batteries as the preferred power source for electric and hybrid vehicles. To determine when to proceed with a new technology many managers and engineers employ popular heuristics, some of which are seen as "laws". Many of these laws have become widely accepted and are now applied when drawing conclusions about a broad range of technologies. Some have become self-fulfilling.

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