Survey Measures of Inflation Expectation  

Oleh:

Tjahjono, Endy Dwi ; Harmanta ; Purwato, Nur M. Adhi

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional - terakreditasi DIKTI
Dalam koleksi: Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking (ex: Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan) vol. 14 no. 4 (Apr. 2012), page 421-456.
Topik: Inflation expectation; Vector Auto Regression; balanced score
Fulltext: EndyDwiTjahjonoHarmantaNurMAdhiPurwanto_dv.pdf (500.41KB)

Isi artikel

The research objective was to analyze various survey measures of inflation expectation in Indonesia. We found that the heterogeneity of inflation expectationamong economic agents and professional forecastersfor short forecast horizon is very low. Survey measures of inflation expectation appear to be forward looking, but only for relatively short horizon. Although the magnitude and length vary across measures of inflation expectation, we find that shock to inflation expectation significantly affect the dynamics of the actual inflation rate. Based on the accuracy, the effect on actual inflation and directional information that they have in predicting current and future inflation, inflation expectation from Consensus Forecast outperformed the others. 1 EndyDwi Tjahjono (endydt@bi.go.id), Harmanta (harmanta@bi.go.id), and Nur M. Adhi Purwato (adhipd@bi.go.id) are researchers in BRE-DKM Bank Indonesia and are responsible for the results and opinions presented in this paper. We would like to express our gratitude to Mr. Perry Warjiyo, Mr. Iskandar Simorangkir, and other researchers in BRE-DKM that have made contributions in this research.

Opini Anda

Klik untuk menuliskan opini Anda tentang koleksi ini!

Kembali