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Modeling Japanese Oil Imports : A Seasonal Cointegration Approach
Oleh:
Moosa, Imad A.
Jenis:
Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi:
JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY vol. 8 no. 3 (1996)
,
page 279-290.
Topik:
oil
;
oil imports
;
cointegration approach
Ketersediaan
Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi)
Nomor Panggil:
JJ47.6
Non-tandon:
1 (dapat dipinjam: 0)
Tandon:
tidak ada
Lihat Detail Induk
Isi artikel
In this paper a model is developed explaining Japanese oil imports in terms of Japanese industrial production using seasonal integration and cointegration techniques. It is shown that both of these variables are seasonally integrated which makes it possible to test for cointegration at various frequencies. The two variables turn out to be cointegrated at the seasonal frequencies but not at the zero frequency (long run). A seasonal error correction model is estimated accordingly, showing the importance of allowing for error correction at the seasonal frequencies. It is concluded that if seasonality is present, it must be modeled explicitly in order to avoid specification errors.
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