China's Achilles Heel: Demography  

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Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi: The Economist (http://search.proquest.com/) vol. 403 no. 8780 (Apr. 2012), page 41-42.
Topik: Geographic Profiles; Demography; Demographics; Trends; Problems; Population; Fertility; Statistical Data; Labor Force

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: EE29.71 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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In 2010 China overtook America in terms of manufactured output, energy use and car sales. Its military spending has been growing in nominal terms by an average of 16% each year for the past 20 years. According to the IMF, China will overtake America as the world's largest economy (at purchasing-power parity) in 2017. Between now and 2050 China's population will fall slightly, from 1.34 billion in 2010 to just under 1.3 billion in 2050. This assumes that fertility starts to recover. If it stays low, the population will dip below 1 billion by 2060. In contrast, America's population is set to rise by 30% in the next 40 years. This trend will have profound financial and social consequences. Most obviously, it means China will have a bulge of pensioners before it has developed the means of looking after them. China set up a national pensions fund in 2000, but only about 365m people have a formal pension. Between 2010 and 2050 China's workforce will shrink as a share of the population by 11 percentage points, from 72% to 61%--a huge contraction. The apparently endless stream of cheap labour is starting to run dry.

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