What Makes Heroic Strife: The Science of Civil War  

Oleh:

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Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi: The Economist (http://search.proquest.com/) vol. 403 no. 8780 (Apr. 2012), page 81-82.
Topik: Conflict; Forecasting; War; Research; Military Personnel; Guerrilla Forces

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: EE29.71 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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In the war-games rooms and think-tanks of the rich world's military powers, bright minds are working on the problem of how to model insurrection and irregular warfare. Slowly but surely they are succeeding, and in the process they are helping politicians and armies to a better understanding of the nature of rebellion. One of the best-known projects in this field is SCARE, the Spatio-Cultural Abductive Reasoning Engine, developed at the United States Military Academy at West Point by a team led by Major Paulo Shakarian, a computer-scientist-turned-soldier. Shakarian and his team have analyzed the behavior of guerrillas in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and think they understand it well enough to build reliable models. Shakarian's latest trick is to include data on phone-traffic patterns in the calculations. An upgraded version of the program, employing this trick, will be created next month. All of which is useful for dealing with a conflict once it has started. But it is better, if possible, to see what may happen before things get going. And for that, America's navy has a project called RiftLand. Broadly, RiftLand works by chewing its way through a range of data collected by charities, academics and government agencies, and uses these to predict where groups of people will go and with whom they may clash in times of drought or armed conflict. Conflict forecasters are even joining the open-source bandwagon, in an attempt to improve their software.

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