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ArtikelThe Great Divide: Buttonwood  
Oleh: [s.n]
Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi: The Economist (http://search.proquest.com/) vol. 403 no. 8782 (Apr. 2012), page 65.
Topik: Investments; Housing Prices; Interest Rates; International Comparisons
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  • Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi)
    • Nomor Panggil: EE29.71
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Isi artikelMany people think that owning a house is a certain moneymaker, but this is not the historical experience. In his recent book "Safe as Houses? A Historical Analysis of Property Prices", Neil Monnery presents data from an array of nations going back (in some cases) several centuries. What he discovers is that real house prices have generally been flat over time, or have increased by at most 1% a year. Rather like gold, then, house prices have been a good store of value rather than an automatic route to riches. The exception is the period of the past 15 years or so, when real house prices took off in a few countries. But not everywhere. It is hard to find an explanation for price movements that applies across markets. Some cite low real interest rates as the main reason that prices have held up in Europe. But real rates have fallen sharply in America as well. For home-buyers, the best measure of the real rate is the gap between the average mortgage rate and annual wage growth. In America this is close to its lowest level in 24 years but the housing market is still flat as a chapati. Indeed, if you divide that period into three, house prices rose faster when rates were high than when they were low. In Britain, real house prices fell by a third between 1973 and 1977, even when real interest rates were sharply negative.
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