Detail My Forecast for the Economy in 2012: Cautiously Optimistic   Oleh:  Cassidy, John Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine Dalam koleksi: Fortune vol. 164 no. 10 (Dec. 2011), page 25. Topik: Financial Reports; Recession; Unemployment Rate; US Economy Ketersediaan Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: FF16.47 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada     Lihat Detail Induk Isi artikel After four years of recession and subpar growth, could 2012 be the year the U.S. economy finally snaps out of its funk? Despite the turmoil in Europe, many Americans would like to think so, among them President Obama (whose electoral prospects are dim unless things perk up). Let's start with the good news: Recently the economy has done better than expected. Back in June, citing rising gas prices and the drawing-down of the stimulus, I asked whether it was too early to start talking about a double-dip recession. Despite a lot of subsequent angst, it was. Between July and September, GDP rose at an annualized rate of about 2%; the fourth-quarter figure may well be close to 3%. If that rate of expansion were to be sustained, unemployment would come down (and Obama's chances would greatly improve). Most professional forecasters think growth will be more modest. In a year-end survey by the National Association of Business Economics, the median prediction for GDP growth next year was 2.4%, which is basically an extrapolation from what we've seen over the past six months. As a recovering pessimist -- from 1997 to 2007, I spent an entire decade doubting the Greenspan/Bernanke prosperity -- I have been trying to be cheerier about the economy's prospects. Opini Anda Klik untuk menuliskan opini Anda tentang koleksi ini! Kembali

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