Oil Demand in The US and Japan : Why The Demand Reductions Caused by The Price Increase of The 1970's Won't be Reversed by The Price Declines of The 1980's  

Oleh:

Gately, Dermot

Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi: JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY vol. 5 no. 4 (1993), page 295-320.
Topik: demand; oil demand; demand reduction; price increase; price decline

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: JJ47.3 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

This paper analyzes the imperfect price - reversibility ('hysteresis’) of oil demand in the US and Japan. We test econometrically oil demand data, disaggregated into transportation oil and non - transportation oil uses. The oil demand reductions following the oil price increases of the 1970' s will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980' s. The responce to price cuts in the 1980' s is perhaps only one - fifth that for price increases in the 1970' s. This has dramatic implications for projections of oil demand, especially under low - price assumptions. We also consider the demand effects of a price recovery in the 1990' s, especially whether the effects would be as large as for the price increases of the 1970' s or only as large as the smaller demand reversals of the 1980' s. On this the results are inconclusive.

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