Earnings Performance in Predicting Future Earnings and Stock Price Pattern  

Oleh:

Junaidi

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah nasional - terakreditasi DIKTI
Dalam koleksi: Journal of Economics, Business, & Accountancy: ventura vol. 14 no. 2 (Aug. 2011), page 107-112.
Topik: earnings; stock price; time series; forecasting.

Ketersediaan

Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: VV5.8 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Isi artikel

So far, business forecasting has been considered important in almost all economic entities and it is often used in areas such as in security analysts, institutional lending, and management. This research aims at examining empirically the predictability of time series of earnings for future earnings and stock price patterns by means of Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). It is expected to provide contribution in the form of empirical evidence, in which earnings are considered useful for predicting earnings and stock price pattern. The forecasting is by using some techniques among others, the naive model, regression, ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) and so on. The data were taken from stock market data center at UGM and UTY’s IDX corner during 1996-2007. Based on the sampling criteria, 22 companies were used as the sample. The results showed that there were no statistically significant differences among actual earnings for the earnings forecast. The first hypothesis which states that there is ability in predicting earnings income is statistically supported. The second hypothesis which states that there is the ability of earnings in predicting stock price pattern is also statistically supported.

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