Seasons of Discontent; Climate Science  

Oleh:

[s.n]

Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine
Dalam koleksi: The Economist (http://search.proquest.com/) vol. 400 no. 8748 (Aug. 2011), page 63-64.
Topik: Correlation Analysis; Research; Climate Change; Manycountries; Conflicts; International Relations

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: EE29.67 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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Believers extol the infant Christ, after whom the global climate oscillation El Nino is named, as the Prince of Peace. Not so, according to a new analysis by Solomon Hsiang of Columbia University and his colleagues. Looking at data on weather and warfare from around the world over the past six decades, Dr Hsiang finds that in those countries where El Nino exerts its effects it brings with it a significant extra risk of civil conflict. The results, published in Nature, cannot be translated into a prognosis for the effects that global warming may have on ancient grudges and new mutinies. But they provide a striking insight into the ways that geography can shape human affairs. In years of El Nino, the researchers found, the annual risk of conflict in their 93 tropical countries was 6%. When the oscillation reached its other extreme, a situation known as La Nina, the risk was 3%. In other parts of the world it stayed pretty stable around 2%. This is not to say climate is the only or main factor behind conflict. But the researchers' numbers suggest that as many as a fifth of the internal conflicts of the period were affected by El Nino.

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