Beyond the Tea Leaves : Futures Research and Terrorism  

Oleh:

Jensen, Carl J [III]

Jenis: Article from Journal - e-Journal
Dalam koleksi: American Behavioral Scientist vol. 44 no. 06 (Feb. 2001), page 914-936 .
Topik: Terrorism; Internet; CIA Methodology; Cyberterrorism; Cross Impact Analysis
Fulltext: 05. Beyond the Tea Leaves - Futures Research and Terrorism.pdf (2.31MB)

Isi artikel

No one can predict the future. The study of futures research, however, offers insights that may assist in foreseeing certain trends that will affect future events. This article employs a modified version of one futures research methodology, cross-impact analysis, to study the interactions of four trends that will likely influence the future of international terrorism: the expanded use of the Internet on the international level, the effects of emerging ethnic and religious sensibilities, the growing economic gap between the rich and the poor, and the continued role of the United States as the world's predominant superpower.

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