The Census Bureau on Prospects for US Population Growth in the Twenty-First Century  

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Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Population and Development Review vol. 26 no. 1 (Mar. 2000), page 197-200 .
Topik: The Census Bureau; Population Growth; Twenty-First Century.

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The U.S. Census Bureau periodically releases projections of the US resident population, de- tailed by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The most recent of these, issued 13 January 2000, for the first time extend to the year 2100 and also include information on the foreign- born population. (Earlier projections were carried up to 2080.) The extensive tabulations presenting the new set, and detailed explanation of the methodology and the assumptions underlying the projections, are accessible at the Census Bureau 's web site: http://www.census.gov. A brief summary of some of the main results of these projections is reproduced below from United States Department of Commerce News, Washington, DC20230. (The Census Bureau is an agency of the Department of Commerce.) Uncertainties as to future trends in fertility, mortality, and net migration over a pe- riod of some 100 years are very great, as is illustrated by the massive difference in the pro- jected size of the population for 2100 in the three variants produced. The "middle" projected population figure of 571 million (which represents a growth of some 109 percent over its current level) is bracketed by "lowest" and "highest" alternative projections of 283 million and 1.18 billion, respectively. With somewhat lesser force, the point also applies to the 50- year time span considered in the well-known country-by-country projections of the United Nations. These projections are also detailed in three variants: low, middle, and high. The UN projections (last revised in 1998) envisage less rapid growth in the United States during the first part of the twenty-first century than do the Census Bureau's. The projected population figuresfor2050 in the three variants (low, middle, and high) are as follows (in millions):

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