A Multiple Models Approach To Assessing Recidivism Risk: Implications For Judicial Decision Making  

Oleh:

Silver, Eric ; Chow-Martin, Lynette

Jenis: Article from Journal - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Criminal Justice and Behavior vol. 29 no. 5 (Oct. 2003), page 538-568.
Fulltext: 538.pdf (161.8KB)

Isi artikel

This study used a large recidivism data set to develop and validate a multiple models tool for predicting recidivism risk. Consistent with prior research, the authors found that the multiple models tool was more accurate than tools built using the traditional single-model approach. In addition, they demonstrated that the predicted recidivism rates produced by the multiple models tool could be summarized in a usable format consisting of four to five statistically distinct risk classes offering an impressive degree of base-rate dispersion. Given that public protection ranks as a primary focal concern of judges, the authors believe that their results justify renewed attention to the potential uses of actuarial tools within the context of judicial decision making

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