Even Swaps : A Rational Method for Making Trade-Offs  

Oleh:

Keeney, Ralph L. ; Raiffa, Howard ; Hammond III, John S.

Jenis: Article from Bulletin/Magazine - ilmiah internasional
Dalam koleksi: Harvard Business Review bisa di lihat di link (http://web.b.ebscohost.com/ehost/command/detail?sid=f227f0b4-7315-44a4-a7f7-a7cd8cbad80b%40sessionmgr114&vid=12&hid=105&bdata=JnNpdGU9ZWhvc3QtbGl2ZQ%3d%3d#db=bth&jid=HBR) vol. 76 no. 2 (1998), page 137-152.
Topik: operational methods; alternatives; barter; complexity; decision making; objectives; tradeoff analysis

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Perpustakaan Pusat (Semanggi) Nomor Panggil: HH10.13 Non-tandon: 1 (dapat dipinjam: 0) Tandon: tidak ada

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This article offers insight to any decision maker struggling with a hard choice. Making wise trade - offs is one of the most important and difficult challenges in decision making. The sheer volume of trade - offs, however, is not what makes decision making so hard. It's the fact that each objective has its own basis of comparison, from precise numbers (34 % versus 38 %) to relationships (high versus low) to descriptive terms (red versus blue). You're not just trading off apples and oranges ; you're trading off apples and oranges and elephants. How do you make trade - offs when comparing widely disparate things ? In the past, decision makers have relied mostly on instinct, common sense, and guesswork. They've lacked a clear, rational, and easy - to - use trade - off methodology. To help fill that gap, Howard Raiffa, a professor emeritus at Harvard University, John Hammond, a Boston - area consultant, and Ralph Keeney, a professor of systems management at the University of Southern California have developed a system - which they call even swaps - that provides a practical way of making trade - offs among a range of objectives across a range of alternatives. The even -swap method will not make complex decisions easy ; you'll still have to make hard choices about the values you set and the trades you make. What it does provide is a reliable mechanism for making trades and a coherent framework in which to make them.

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